What if the U.S. were a growth story?

For more than a decade now, we've heard that the vast majority of economic growth in the world will occur in emerging markets and that the United States will remain locked in slow growth. That has shaped billions of dollars worth of investment decisions by U.S. companies and financial firms, probably tens of billions of dollars. And it has fueled the notion that America is locked in some sort of perpetual decline.

But what if that perception changed? I think there are early signs that it just might be. The emerging markets ain't emerging as fast as some people thought. Two out of the so-called BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are hitting the wall in terms of their emergence. Russia is locked in a backward-looking, resource-based model. And India is suddenly realizing that its growth rates are plummeting in part because it can't make up its mind about whether to open further to the world. China is still doing well, although it's slowing. Brazil's story remains intact. But another country, Indonesia, can't seem to break out of a commodity-based mode to drive up the technology food chain. All these countries are handicapped by governing structures and institutions that may not be able to support first-rate technology-based economies.

Meanwhile, I'm beginning to see headlines like, "U.S. Market Shines Brighter."' It turns out that large companies are moving some operations home from China and Canada because making things here, close to where they are sold, is cheaper. Union Pacific is buying more locomotives. Cummins Inc., is boosting its capital spending to make more engines for trucks and heavy equipment. "We are coming out of the depths of the recession and are starting to build momentum on the upside," William Plummer, CFO of United Rentals, was quoted as waying recently.

After years of being punished, there must be huge pent-up demand in the United States for all sorts of goods and services. Overall, our institutions and rule of law have remained intact. Our R&D capabilities have not been destroyed--in fact, they remain tops in the world. Our population is getting younger because of immigration.

It's still a contrarian point of view, but what if, just what if, the United States was about to demonstrate its historical resiliency and start to grow again? We might be a hot new play in the world.